The "Predictive-Policing" computer program allows law enforcement departments to tailor where police officers are placed in order to better prevent crime. UCLA mathematician Andrea Bertozzi—a Sigma Xi Distinguished Lecturer—and social scientist Jeffrey Brantingham discuss the thinking behind the program their team created.

A Storify of the discussion is below.

The Mathematics of Crime

The "Predictive-Policing" computer program allows law enforcement departments to tailor where police officers are placed in order to better prevent crime. UCLA mathematician Andrea Bertozzi and social scientist Jeffrey Brantingham discuss the thinking behind the program their team created.

1. 

   In 1 hour, 15:30 ET: The #math of #crime  http://bit.ly/27TU66r  an #AmSciGHO with @UCLA's Andrea Bertozzi pic.twitter.com/SWpMkoLooK

   American Scientist@AmSciMag

   ·

   Tue, Jun 14 2016 18:31:02

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2. ---

3. Not just theory -- in practice -- the "Predictive Policing" computer program is in use by the Los Angeles Police Department, among many others.
4. This video explains #predictivepolicing research by #AmSciGHO guests, Andrea Bertozzi and Jeff Brantingham of @UCLA  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0gX_z0V0nE …

   SigmaXiSociety@SigmaXiSociety

   ·

   Tue, Jun 14 2016 19:33:57

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6. 

   #AmSciGHO @UCLA's Andrea Bertozzi and Jeff Brantingham on predicting the #math of #crime. pic.twitter.com/XHFvuloiNm

   American Scientist@AmSciMag

   ·

   Tue, Jun 14 2016 19:37:47

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7. 

   American Scientist@AmSciMag

   Mathematically predicting #crime on short time scales nearly (if not) impossible. Focus instead is on "where" not "when." #AmSciGHO

   Tue, Jun 14 2016 19:38:50

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8. 

   American Scientist@AmSciMag

   Bertozzi says mathematical models of type used to #predict #crime also work for predicting email traffic and IED attacks. #AmSciGHO

   Tue, Jun 14 2016 19:43:54

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9. 

   American Scientist@AmSciMag

   Gang tags with spray paint -- like "broken windows" effect -- could be quite useful for modeling and predicting #crime. #AmSciGHO

   Tue, Jun 14 2016 19:45:26

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10. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    Jeff Brantingham says #police have been going through a #data #revolution as part of managing their activities. #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 19:46:58

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11. 

    Most police departments have data on 100s of events that can be used for predictive models -J Brantingham #AmSciGHO pic.twitter.com/1m15fv0YbN

    SigmaXiSociety@SigmaXiSociety

    ·

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 19:48:24

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12. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    Like the spatial scales for #earthquakes, think of the #spatial scales for #crime, but with much smaller radii (~ a mile or so) #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 19:49:49

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13. 

    SigmaXiSociety@SigmaXiSociety

    We're much less focused on the individuals committing the crime as we are on the area as a target of the crime, -A. Bertozzi #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 19:51:28

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14. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    "It's not just about crime; it's a property of human behavior" Brantingham says modeling could work also on where people eat out #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 19:51:50

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15. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    Many reasons why mathematically impossible w/ these techniques (using available data) to predict "who" will commit crimes #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 19:54:57

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16. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    There are as many theories about how #poverty drives #crime as there are #sociologists in the world -- @UCLA's Jeff Brantingham #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 19:56:48

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17. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    "You want a #crime (#violent and non-violent) #model with the fewest parameters possible" -- Bertozzi & Brantingham @UCLA #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 19:58:55

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18. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    Concerning #privacy and #civil #liberties, types of #data (what/where/when) used is 90-95% reported by the #public #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:01:47

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19. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    "We assume the #criminals are identical... in our models" making the mathematics easier, says Bertozzi #AmSciGHO #preventing not #profiling

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:03:27

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20. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    The first use of these #predicting #policing programs started in Santa Cruz (CA), says Bertozzi, led to 27% decline in crime. #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:05:00

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21. 

    SigmaXiSociety@SigmaXiSociety

    Today's #AmSciGHO guest Jeff Brantingham is @UCLA professor of anthropology and chief of research @PredPol  http://www.predpol.com/ 

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:05:52

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22. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    Santa Cruz results --> 21-month-long program in #LA. In that first month, another 200 police departments heard about it, wanted in #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:07:21

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23. 

    SigmaXiSociety@SigmaXiSociety

    Today's #AmSciGHO guest Andrea Bertozzi is a Sigma Xi Distinguished Lecturer, @UCLA math prof  http://bit.ly/1qPu0Qe  #predictivepolicing

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:07:51

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24. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    #Math #model #research for predicting #crime requires tweaks outside of the #university setting #AmSciGHO #collaboration with #police depts.

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:09:38

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25. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    Initial deployment of #research took 6 or 7 years, but now it's a service for each new #police department. Fully automated. #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:12:38

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26. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    Human #crime #analyst is looking at "hotspot" maps -- predictive algorithms can look at complete #history and so be more accurate #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:16:38

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27. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    Bertozzi's publications on these #crime models are listed here:  http://bit.ly/1VXUUSY  #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:19:31

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28. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    Paradox in #criminology: #hotspot #policing --> either crime disappeared or displaced. #Math helped explain which happened & why #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:23:02

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29. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    These methods are for delivering short-term predictions, not solving the root causes of #crime. #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:25:02

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30. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    Bertozzi and Brantingham say now using #socialmedia #geotags of #LA #data to better understand #human #behavior. #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:27:48

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31. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    We can take millions of #Tweets and... "it's pretty exciting" -Bertozzi #AmSciGHO #socialmedia

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:28:44

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32. 

    SigmaXiSociety@SigmaXiSociety

    "You can solve problems that are much bigger than you could on your own."–Dist Lecturer A Bertozzi on interdisciplinary research #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:29:54

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33. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    We do this #collaboration #multidisciplinary work because we can solve problems that are bigger than one can just do on one's own #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:30:01

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34. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    "#Social scientists have to... compromise about the way they think about their #research" for #quant #progress @UCLA's Brantingham #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:33:13

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35. 

    SigmaXiSociety@SigmaXiSociety

    Social science can explode by embracing machine learning, but not all disciplines have training to make that handshake –A Bertozzi #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:34:30

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36. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    Brantingham did post-doc work @sfiscience prior to getting started on this #predictive #policing project with Bertozzi @UCLA #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:35:06

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37. 

    American Scientist@AmSciMag

    That concludes the event and @AmSciMag's live tweeting of The #Math of #Crime. Find the #video archived here:  http://bit.ly/27TU66r 

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:37:35

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38. 

    SigmaXiSociety@SigmaXiSociety

    Sigma Xi members, continue the discussion about #predictivepolicing in our online community, The Lab:  http://community.sigmaxi.org/home  #AmSciGHO

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:36:10

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39. 

    A recording is available of today's Google Hangout about #predictivepolicing.  http://bit.ly/1qPu0Qe  #AmSciGHO pic.twitter.com/WjkuwZaYIh

    SigmaXiSociety@SigmaXiSociety

    ·

    Tue, Jun 14 2016 20:39:09

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